Don't trust the bookies odds too much, the by-election will be tight. Burnham might be lucky to win.
I've yet to see Count Binface invited onto QT, or any of the Monster RLP, either.
Paulie xx
Following Question Time, and the subsequent negative response he's received, can't have done much for Kenyon's chances in Makerfield.
He can't seem to shake off the "sexist" comments he allegedly made, and they're having a negative affect on him.
The odds continue to shorten on Labour, and are now sitting at 1/6, with Reform around the 9/2 mark.
If, Burnham is elected, it'll then trigger a further by-election, to replace him in his Greater Manchester role, so my next question is..................
What we will we have first, a new PM, or a new mayor?
Spelly.
The Makerfield constituency seems to stretch in various directions!
There were placards for the by-election up in gardens today near the ground in Orreell, which I was most surprised about. I would never have guessed it was within Makerfield as far as voting was concerned.
Spelly.
I've yet to see Count Binface invited onto QT, or any of the Monster RLP, either.
Paulie xx
Paulie - Neither of those are 3rd in the polling for this seat though?
If it's a Makerfield special then surely that should have counted for something?
Just checked the odds again, and one bookie has Labour a short as 1/20 for the by-lection that is now just a week away, with......
The remainder offering around the 1/6 mark, so.............
Is Burnham a dead cert for a return to Westminster?
Kenyon can't seem to shake off the "sexist" tag that's been thrown at him, and that could put negative thoughts in the minds of those Makerfielders who are still undecided as to where their X is going to go, so...........
What are your predictions for the result?
Me? Naturally, I'm hoping for a Labour win, but (trying to throw bias aside) I'm going for a Burnham comfortable majority of 4,000-ish, and should that transpire................
It'll then create two further elections in which (unlike the Makerfield one) I will have a vote. The Greater Manchester Mayoral role will then become vacant, as will (probably) that of being the keyholder to the most famous front door in the land.
Over to you mes amis!
Spelly.
More bad news for the PM with defence minister, John Healey, tendering his resignation from the cabinet.
Another name to go on the ballot paper if (probably when) there is a leadership election?
Spelly.
And the Armed Forces minister.
How much more can Starmer be undermined by his own people without going?
Not only is he the most unpopular PM with the public, he must be getting close to being the most unpopular PM in party history as well.
And the Armed Forces minister.
How much more can Starmer be undermined by his own people without going?
Not only is he the most unpopular PM with the public, he must be getting close to being the most unpopular PM in party history as well.
Never was a truer word spoken mate!
Dead man walking in my opinion!
Spelly.
There's another two by-elections on Thursday, as well as the one in Makerfield, but they appear to have gone un-noticed coz of the Burnham / Kenyon shoot-out.
The voters of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, together with those of Aberdeen South, will be putting their Xs to decide who replace (in both cases) SNP representatives.
The bad publicity the Let's Dis-unite the UK party have had of late, will hopefully persuade the electorate to not vote for 'em.
Spelly.
And so tomorrow, the electorate of a constituency that up until a few weeks ago, a lot of people had never heard of, are voting in the biggest by-election for a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time.
Naturally, I'm hoping for a Labour win, and Burnham is still long odds on to secure a return to Westminster, thus creating a vacancy in the role of Greater Manchester Mayor, but...............
Whatever the result tomorrow, the pressure will remain (grow?) on the PM's position, and I would expect there to be a leadership contest before the Autumn.
Candidates? Starmer has said he'll stand if (when?) there's a challenge, and both Streeting and Burnam are pretty much certs as well, so there'll be at least three, but..............
I'd not by any means, rule out the likes Rayner / Reeves / Healey, joining the aforementioned trio.
Hold on to your hats, it could be a bumpy ride!
Spelly.
@spelly Won't be too many.
You need 20% of the MP's support to get on the ballot I believe.
Imagine it will be the main 3. Don't think Rayner will have the numbers, or Mad Ed thank goodness.
@spelly Won't be too many.
You need 20% of the MP's support to get on the ballot I believe.
Imagine it will be the main 3. Don't think Rayner will have the numbers, or Mad Ed thank goodness.
So just KS, WS, and AB for the members (inc yours truly) to choose from eh mate?
If so, I defo won't be going for PM, so it'll be a straight fight between the ex Health Secretary, and the (after tomorrow) ex Manchester Mayor, and at present, I must confess, that neither of 'em are jumping out at me!
As i bash this out, there's just under an hour until the Makerfield polling stations close, and (hopefully) they've given Farage a bloody nose!
Spelly.
So Labour staring down the barrel of a leadership election over the coming weeks/months. They need a change, Starmer is a dead man walking. The win in this by-election is all Burnham, not Labour bounce.
As much as I detest them, Reform shouldn't be too downhearted, the bloke in this election was a human car crash (like most of them) and he still polled nearly 16k votes.
So Labour staring down the barrel of a leadership election over the coming weeks/months. They need a change, Starmer is a dead man walking. The win in this by-election is all Burnham, not Labour bounce.
As much as I detest them, Reform shouldn't be too downhearted, the bloke in this election was a human car crash (like most of them) and he still polled nearly 16k votes.
Naturally I'm pleased with the result, but as you intimate, the fact our candidate was well known previously, would no doubt have helped.
You use the term "dead man walking" about the PM, and I've uttered those exact same words many times recently talking to family and friends.
As I've said before, there's more chance of me buying a season ticket for the Pinks then there is of me voting Reform, and I'm delighted that in the end, the majority was greater than two years ago, but..............
Even with all the hype / publicity this by-election has caused, less than six in ten of the Makerfield electorate, bothered to get off their ***** and go to the polling station, which I would suggest, reflects how Joe Public currently views the current state of UK politics.
Burnham for PM? Time will tell!
Spelly.